250709-0502z –

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on July 9, 2025

S2 Intelligence Report

Armed Attacks on U.S. Agents

Jun 25–Jul 8, 2025

S2 Intelligence Report

Armed Attacks on U.S. Agents

Jun 25–Jul 8, 2025

ID: 250709-0502z

TierColor Name (radio-friendly)Numeric AliasPlain-Language meaningTypical Trigger
HeightenedBLUE4Suspicious activity/trend noted; verify & watchCredible but unconfirmed intel, uptick in chatter

Summary

From late June through July 8, 2025, multiple coordinated and lone‑actor attacks targeted U.S. law enforcement and service departments—most notably Border Patrol, ICE, and local police. Incidents ranged from high-profile ambushes (e.g., Prairieland ICE Detention Center, McAllen Border Patrol station) to lower-level assaults and data points showing a troubling rise in assault frequency. These attacks are increasingly framed as domestic terrorism, with anti‑ICE and anti‑federal rhetoric. No confirmed links to Iranian proxies have been publicly established; however, imagery (body armor, rifles, gear) and propaganda (e.g., “RESIST FASCISM FIGHT OLIGARCHY”) suggest ideological networks rather than spontaneous protest.

Key Incidents

A. Attempted Ambush at Prairieland ICE Detention Center, Alvarado, TX – July 4, 2025

  • What happened: Approx. 10–12 masked individuals conducted a planned ambush. They used fireworks and vandalism to lure ICE officers outside, spray‑painted vehicles with “ICE pig” and other slogans, then opened fire. One Alvarado police officer was shot in the neck; two unarmed ICE officers also fired upon. Homeland Security Digital Library+6Facebook+6Congress.gov+6New York Post+3The Daily Beast+3The Guardian+3
  • Suspects and gear: Named individuals include Cameron Arnold, Savannah Batten, Nathan Baumann, et al. They were from the Dallas–Fort Worth area. Weapons (AR‑15 style rifle, pistol magazine, 5.56 casings), body armor (12 sets), tactical vests, masks, goggles, and “insurrectionary” flags/propaganda messages were found. The Guardian+3The Daily Beast+3New York Post+3
  • Legal charges: 10 suspects charged with:
    • Attempted murder of federal agents (3 counts each)
    • Discharging firearms during violent crime
    • Additional obstruction/conspiracy charges applied to an 11th co‑conspirator
  • Remarks:“It was a planned ambush with the intent to kill ICE corrections officers…not a so‑called peaceful protest” — Acting U.S. Attorney Nancy E. Larson Los Angeles Times+11The Daily Beast+11The Guardian+11The Guardian+1AP News+1
  • Analysis: This highly coordinated operation with tactical gear, advanced planning, and messaging strongly meets criteria for domestic terrorism. The structure and use of propaganda indicate an ideologically motivated group seeking to influence broader policy or public opinion, possibly linked to anarchist or anti‑federal movements.

B. Border Patrol Facility Shooting, McAllen, TX – July 7, 2025

  • What happened: Around 5:50 a.m., a man armed with an rifle and wearing a utility/tactical vest opened fire on border patrol agents at the McAllen station. One police officer was shot in the knee. The shooter—identified as 27‑year‑old Ryan Louis Mosqueda—was shot dead by authorities. Reuters+2AP News+2Wikipedia+2
  • Background & investigation: Mosqueda was reported missing earlier that day; thought to have mental health issues. Additional weapons and ammo were found in his vehicle, along with cryptic spray-painted text. FBI leading the investigation; no clear motive or group affiliation identified yet. Wikipedia+2Reuters+2AP News+2
  • Analysis: Whether Mosqueda acted alone due to personal issues or as part of a larger ideological cell remains undetermined. The FBI is investigating potential domestic terrorism motivations, but current evidence leans toward a lone‑actor incident.

C. Rise in Assaults on ICE Agents

  • Statistics: DHS reported a 500% increase in assaults on ICE agents up to June 20, 2025, with incidents including an officer being dragged ~50 yd during an arrest. WBZ NewsRadio+8Homeland Security+8WEAR+8
  • June 7 incident: In Los Angeles, more than 1,000 rioters assaulted ICE officers—slashing tires, defacing property—outside a federal building. LAPD took two hours to respond. Homeland Security
  • Nebraska worksite raid: On June 10, during a major ICE worksite enforcement in Omaha, officers were assaulted by a detainee resisting arrest. ICE+1WEAR+1
  • Analysis: The statistical uptick and repeated incidents across multiple jurisdictions reflect a coordinated rise in anti‑ICE sentiment and violence. Some may be spontaneous; others appear organized.

D. Idaho Firefighter Ambush, June 29, 2025

Sources

Strategic Assessment

IndicatorObserved Trends
Target selectionFederal agents (ICE, Border Patrol), local police responding to federal operations
Tactics & coordinationTactical gear, fireworks diversion, ambushes, spray‑paint messaging
Ideological messagingAnti‑ICE slogans, anti‑oligarchy flags—aligned with domestic extremist/anti‑government rhetoric
Foreign sponsorshipNo current evidence linking to Iranian proxies—but foreign propaganda influence cannot be ruled out given ideological framing
Lone‑actor vs. cell threatMixed: some high-coordination ambushes; other unstable lone actors

Threat Characterization

  • Domestic Terrorism: The July 4 ambush clearly fits the DHS and FBI definitions—premeditated violence targeting government agents, intended to influence policy through intimidation.
  • Lone‑actor risk: July 7 shooting illustrates threat from mentally unstable individuals with access to weapons; FBI investigation will clarify ideological versus pathological motivations.
  • Propaganda & messaging: Use of flags, body armor, and anti‑government rhetoric suggests shifts from protest to militant activist networks.

Intelligence Gaps & Lead Indicators

  • Group affiliation: Who organized the July 4 ambush? Evidence suggests local coordination but agents still at large.
  • Ideological networks: Is there a broader anti‑ICE/anti‑government network online coordinating tactics and sharing training?
  • Foreign influence: Need to assess if foreign entities (e.g., Iran-backed proxies) have amplified domestic extremist content online to encourage violence.
  • Intelligence exploitation: Monitoring propaganda channels, social media chatter, and gear supply chains might yield lead indicators of future attacks.

Recommendations for Next Steps

  • Close source recruitment within extremist and anti‑federal circles—both online and in hot-spot areas.
  • Propaganda tracking: Catalog flag designs, rhetoric, and paraphernalia for use in understanding group identities.
  • Provide guidance to local LE agencies, especially Border Patrol and ICE, on recognizing tactical ambush signs and improving facility defenses.
  • Conduct foreign‑influence assessment, integrating SIGINT and HUMINT to trace possible overseas coordination.
  • Prepare outreach with community leaders to mitigate narrative framing that could enable further escalation.

ANALYST COMMENTS

Overview of Threat Escalation

The pattern of events from late June through July 8 reflects a significant escalation in targeted violence against federal law enforcement and support agencies. These attacks have evolved from sporadic confrontations and heated protests to premeditated armed ambushes. The July 4 Prairieland incident marks a strategic shift—from reactive aggression to calculated offensive operations designed to incapacitate or kill federal agents.

This aligns with the DHS’s broader warnings over the past year that domestic extremists may increasingly move from digital radicalization into kinetic action—especially those with anti-ICE, anti-border, and anti-government ideology.

The Prairieland Ambush: A Turning Point

The July 4 ambush at the Prairieland ICE Detention Center stands out due to:

  • Pre-operational planning: Fireworks used as distractions; officers drawn into kill zone.
  • Logistics: Coordinated arrival of multiple vehicles, tactical gear distribution, and escape plan.
  • Ideological messaging: Flags, anti-government graffiti, and chants indicate a politically motivated operation, not mere criminality.

These are hallmark indicators of a Tier 1 domestic terror cell:

  • Pre-meditation
  • Training or rehearsal
  • Use of symbolic timing (Independence Day)
  • Strong propaganda overlay

The fact that suspects came from urban centers and suburbs near Dallas–Fort Worth also supports the theory of radicalization within non-rural populations—a shift from older militia patterns toward more decentralized cells akin to Antifa-linked factions or anarchist youth movements.

Mixed Actor Profiles: From Cells to Lone Wolves

While the Prairieland operation shows coordination, the McAllen Border Patrol Station shooter (Mosqueda) reflects a contrasting but equally dangerous profile: a mentally unstable individual acting alone but adopting similar weapon loadouts and symbolic targets.

Why this matters:
Lone-actor threats remain harder to predict and intercept. If a steady stream of individuals become radicalized online and emboldened by news of successful attacks, we may face a wave of inspired copycats—each less organized but equally lethal.

Foreign Influence & Information Warfare

While no direct ties to Iranian proxies or other foreign entities have been identified in these incidents, the following merit concern:

  • The slogans and visual style used by the attackers resemble themes amplified by foreign-state troll farms (especially from Iran, Russia).
  • Past Iranian cyber units (e.g., “Phosphorus group”) have targeted U.S. law enforcement with online campaigns, potentially sowing ideological seeds that domestic actors later adopt.
  • Iran has publicly vowed retaliation for U.S. support of Israel, and the border is viewed as a point of ideological contest, even in Iranian state media.

If even low-level logistical or ideological guidance is being offered to domestic radicals via encrypted or pseudonymous online channels, this would represent a hybrid threat vector that combines domestic unrest with foreign influence operations.

Implications for Domestic Security

  • Escalation: The U.S. may be entering a phase where coordinated attacks on enforcement agencies become regular, not exceptional.
  • Demoralization: Targeting ICE, Border Patrol, and police creates operational strain, recruitment difficulties, and morale degradation.
  • Public Perception War: If these attacks are spun as “justified resistance,” it may undermine support for immigration enforcement and national security.

Expect more ambushes, vehicular attacks, or arson-style sabotage targeting remote facilities, transit vehicles, and officer residences—especially around politically symbolic dates (e.g., September 11, Election Day, Veterans Day).

Recommendations for Analysts and Enforcement Agencies

  1. Behavioral Indicators: Develop and disseminate tactical intelligence packages on red flags for ambush planning (e.g., use of firework distractions, surveillance patterns).
  2. Digital Monitoring: Track propaganda phrases and iconography that align with recent attacks. Look for repeated meme formats or slogans (“ICE pig,” “Resist Oligarchy”) across forums like Telegram, Matrix, Discord.
  3. Foreign SIGINT Crosswalk: Coordinate with NSA and allied Five Eyes signals teams to trace the ideological DNA of the attackers—are slogans or tactics repeating patterns from known Iranian or Russian proxy narratives?
  4. Counter-Influence Messaging: Counter the mythos developing around these attackers by highlighting community harm, officer sacrifice, and civilian impacts (e.g., wounded police in ambush).
  5. Forward Deployment Readiness: Treat ICE/BP stations like firehouses in warzones—rotating patrols, reinforced perimeter security, live-ammo range training for non-sworn officers.

Final Assessment

The current trend is not isolated violence—it’s the early operational phase of a long-view domestic insurgency ideology. The coordination level in some attacks, ideological wrapping, and strategic target selection mirror the hallmarks of early-stage insurgent networks. These developments require a combined law enforcement, intelligence, and narrative-control response to avoid further escalation.

This is not yet an insurgency. But it is no longer just protest.

armed attacksCounter InfluenceDHSDigital MonitoringDomestic TerrorismICEMosquedaReadinessSIGINT
Civil UnrestCrimeHeightened - Blue - 4MAGNET Operator ReportsNationalNational Intel BulletinPoliticsTerrorism

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