S2 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Subject: 2025 Combat Performance of Chinese-Supplied Weapon Systems
Date: 12 Jul 2025
ID: 250712-2035z

SUMMARY

In 2025, Chinese air defense systems failed in two major conflicts—India’s Operation Sindoor (7–10 May) and Israel’s Operation Rising Lion (13–23 Jun). Pakistan’s Chinese-made HQ-9P and HQ-16 systems, along with Iran’s JY-10 and JY-27 radar networks, failed to stop any incoming missiles, with key radars destroyed within minutes. A 2024 U.S. intelligence leak exposed corruption in China’s military, including missiles filled with water and faulty silo lids, revealing deep quality issues. These failures led to a ~9% drop in China’s defense stock index and a 20% slide in AVIC-Chengdu shares, signaling investor doubts. Social media, including posts from @orfonline, described a “crisis of confidence” in Chinese weapons. Despite China’s role as the world’s 4th-largest arms exporter (5.9% share, 2020–24, per SIPRI), countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia may hesitate on future deals. Iran and Pakistan, limited by Western sanctions and Russia’s supply constraints, remain reliant on China, with Iran securing new HQ-9B systems via oil-for-arms deals. China’s claim of “operator error” aims to protect its market but faces skepticism due to widely shared battle-damage imagery.

Civilian Implications: These failures weaken China’s influence in global arms markets, potentially boosting Western suppliers like the U.S. and Europe. For civilians, this could mean prolonged conflicts in regions like South Asia and the Middle East, as nations scramble to address defense gaps, risking higher casualties and disrupted trade.

SOURCE LIST

• Times of India – “Operation Sindoor proved India’s readiness” (12 Jul 2025): Leading Indian news outlet covering defense.
• Economic Times – “No Rafale jets lost” (07 Jul 2025): Major Indian business and defense publication.
• USNI Proceedings – “Quick-Look Analysis of Operation Rising Lion” (Jun 2025): U.S. Naval Institute’s professional journal.
• CSIS – “Ungentlemanly Robots: Rising Lion and the New Way of War” (Jun 2025): Think tank analysis on military strategy.
• The Aviationist – “Everything We Know About Rising Lion” (13 Jun 2025): Defense blog with detailed air operation reports.
• War on the Rocks – “Operation Sindoor and India’s Strategy” (19 May 2025): Strategic analysis platform.
• Bloomberg / Newsweek – “Corrupt Chinese officials filled missiles with water” (Jan 2024): Global news covering PLA scandals.
• National Interest – “Why China’s military drones come so cheap” (Apr 2021): Defense policy magazine.
• Defense News – “China’s surprising drone sales in the Middle East” (23 Apr 2021): Defense industry news.
• SIPRI Fact Sheet – “Trends in International Arms Transfers 2024” (Mar 2025): Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, open-access arms trade data.
• Newsweek / India Today – “Iran eyes J-10C purchase” (08–09 Jul 2025): International and Indian news on defense deals.
• Indian Defence Research Wing – Sindoor coverage (May–Jul 2025): Indian defense analysis portal.
• Middle East Eye – “Iran receives Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries” (07 Jul 2025): Middle East-focused news.
• Top War – “Israeli destruction of Chinese JY-27 radar in Syria” (24 Jan 2019): Defense news archive.
• X Posts – Credible accounts (e.g., @orfonline, 10 Jul 2025, a South Asian security think tank) sharing verified battlefield imagery.

Global Arms Export Shares (2020–2024)
The following table illustrates China’s position as the #4 arms exporter, highlighting its vulnerabilities post-2025 failures. Global Arms Exports (2020-2024): China’s 5.9% Share

Note: China’s share is limited by political barriers and focus on domestic production.

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

India–Pakistan (Operation Sindoor)

A 26 Apr 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, killing 26 civilians, led to India’s Operation Sindoor (7–10 May). Indian Air Force missiles, anti-radar weapons, decoys, and drones struck nine militant sites. A Chinese radar at Chünian Air Base was destroyed in ~8 minutes, and air defense systems at Chaklala and Malir failed to respond. Indian electronic warfare disrupted Chinese radar systems, allowing Indian jets to evade detection with no losses, despite social media claims otherwise. Chinese media blamed Pakistani operator errors, but X posts sharing battle-damage imagery challenged this narrative.

Iran–Israel (Operation Rising Lion)

Israel’s Operation Rising Lion (13–23 Jun 2025) began with air strikes at 02:14 local time, disabling Iranian and Chinese radars in ~40 minutes. Five Chinese cargo flights (14–19 Jun) disappeared from tracking over Turkmenistan/Iran, likely delivering radar and missile parts, though China denied this. Iran’s newly acquired Chinese air defense systems were not yet active during the strikes but were later bolstered through an oil-for-arms deal to rebuild defenses.

FACT MATRIX (CONFIRMED)

ASSUMPTIONS (HIGH-PROBABILITY)

• Radar Weaknesses: Chinese radars lack advanced stealth-detection features and were operated by undertrained crews, leading to rapid failures.
• Covert Resupply: Chinese cargo flights likely delivered radar and missile parts to Iran to maintain their alliance.
• Iran’s Fighter Deal: Iran has a >70% chance of buying Chinese J-10C jets and upgraded defenses by early 2026, funded by oil sales.
• China’s Military Delays: Shared flaws in Chinese and export systems will delay China’s military readiness in key regions by 2–3 years.
• Damage Control: China’s claim of operator error aims to protect sales in Africa and the Middle East, but public imagery weakens this narrative.

ADDITIONAL CONTEXT

• A Chinese radar in Syria was destroyed by Israeli jets in 2019, showing ongoing weaknesses.
• Chinese JF-17 jets face engine issues, prompting Pakistan to seek Russian help.
• Chinese drones face reliability problems, reducing buyer interest in the Middle East.
• Egypt’s recent Chinese defense purchases may face review after these failures.

CIVILIAN FAQ

Q: Why do Chinese weapons matter to global security?
A: China supplies arms to over 50 countries, including Iran and Pakistan. Their failures could destabilize regions, prompting arms races or reliance on other suppliers like the U.S. or Europe.

Q: How do these failures affect Iran and Pakistan?
A: Both rely on Chinese weapons due to sanctions and limited Russian supplies. Their inability to counter attacks may increase China’s regional influence through new deals and support.

Q: What does this mean for civilians in conflict zones?
A: Weak defenses could prolong conflicts, increasing civilian casualties and disrupting trade and aid in regions like South Asia and the Middle East.

Q: Could this impact global trade or defense markets?
A: Yes, a ~9% drop in China’s defense index and a 20% slide in AVIC-Chengdu shares signal market doubts. Other nations may turn to Western suppliers, boosting companies like Lockheed Martin or MBDA.

ANALYST COMMENTARY

The 2025 conflicts exposed major flaws in Chinese air defenses, with no successful missile intercepts and rapid radar losses. These failures, alongside China’s military corruption scandals, challenge its reputation as a top arms supplier. Weaknesses in radar technology, command systems, and operator training were evident, worsened by operator errors in Pakistan and Iran’s unprepared systems. For civilians, these gaps risk prolonging conflicts, increasing casualties, and disrupting trade routes in volatile regions.

Short-Term (6–18 Months): Iran and Pakistan will deepen ties with China, accepting new jets and defenses with enhanced training to address weaknesses.
Mid-Term (18–60 Months): Countries like Egypt and Indonesia may demand better terms or switch to European suppliers, while China’s military upgrades slow.
Strategic: The U.S. and allies gain valuable data on Chinese systems, strengthening defenses in regions like Taiwan. China’s ability to rebuild trust depends on fixing technical issues, not just narrative control.