250802-1600Z

S2 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Subject: U.S. Shootings – July 2025 & Iranian Extraterritorial Threat Activity
Date: 250802-1600Z
Threat Level: Elevated-Yellow-3
Region: United States, North America, Europe

Summary

In July 2025, the U.S. experienced multiple shootings, none directly linked to Iran. However, Iranian intelligence services remain active globally, targeting dissidents, journalists, and officials in North America and Europe. A joint statement by 15 allied nations condemned Iran’s state-backed operations, while Iran’s leadership continued to issue hostile proclamations against the West. Although domestic shootings remain primarily unrelated, the overlap of foreign covert activity and domestic instability presents a concerning environment that adversaries may exploit.

Additionally, emerging intelligence indicates that while Iran is the primary foreign state actor engaged in direct extraterritorial plots, U.S. security agencies remain concerned about domestic extremist exploitation of this environment. Anti-government and accelerationist groups, although not connected to the July shootings, are closely monitored for opportunistic activity that could intersect with foreign influence efforts.

Introduction

Iran’s extraterritorial operations—ranging from assassination plots to cyber harassment—have been a recurring security challenge for Western nations. July’s incidents highlight both domestic violent trends and Iran’s persistent hybrid threats. This report outlines July 2025 shooting events, Iranian-linked plots, allied responses, and a detailed analysis of potential future risks.

Sources

• U.S. Department of State – Joint Statement on Iranian State Threat Activity
• Reuters, ABC News, CP24, TIME, Financial Times, Al Jazeera
• Associated Press, Los Angeles Times, The Guardian, The American Legion
• FBI/DOJ Press Releases
• UK/European Press Coverage
• Local Law Enforcement Releases
• Wikipedia (supplemental)

U.S. & Allied Joint Statement

On July 31, 2025, the U.S., UK, Canada, Germany, France, Sweden, and nine other nations issued a joint declaration:

“We are united in our opposition to the attempts of Iranian intelligence services to kill, kidnap, and harass people in Europe and North America in clear violation of our sovereignty… These services are increasingly collaborating with international criminal organizations to target journalists, dissidents, Jewish citizens, and current and former officials… We call on Iranian authorities to immediately end such illegal activities.”
— U.S. State Department

Iranian Leadership Proclamations

• June 26, 2025: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that Iran delivered a “slap to America’s face” via missile strikes in Qatar and warned the U.S. of a “heavy price” for militarization, reaffirming Iran’s stance to “never surrender.”
  Sources: Al Jazeera, AP News, Los Angeles Times
• Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: Reiterated that Iran would not resume talks without “compensation,” framing its actions as justified resistance.
  Sources: Financial Times, The Guardian

These statements align with Tehran’s hybrid doctrine, reinforcing its justification for covert operations against Western targets.

Iranian-Operative Plots & Global Interference

North America

• Nov 2024: IRGC-linked operative Farhad Shakeri indicted in New York for a murder-for-hire plot targeting President-elect Donald Trump and journalist Masih Alinejad.
• Jul 12, 2025 – Washington, D.C.: Arrest of an IRGC-linked operative conducting surveillance on dissidents.
• Jul 24, 2025 – Los Angeles: Attempted assassination of an Iranian-American activist under FBI investigation for potential Iranian ties.

Worldwide (2022–2025)

• May 2025 – London: Five Iranians arrested in IRGC Unit 840 plot targeting Israeli embassy.
• Jul 2025 – Berlin: Danish national detained for spying on Jewish institutions.
• Jul 2025 – Istanbul: Attempted abduction of dissident Mohammed Rezaie via criminal proxies.
• 2024 – North America: Iranian national Sharifi-Zindashti charged in contract-killing scheme.

July 2025 U.S. Shooting Incidents

Timeline of Iranian Activity (2019–July 2025)

Analysis

Iran’s July 2025 posture reflects a deliberate hybrid warfare strategy designed to weaken U.S. and allied security while maintaining deniability.

Strategic Intent
Iran’s use of criminal proxies, intelligence operatives, and cyber tactics reflects an effort to avoid direct conflict while achieving asymmetric gains. Its leadership’s public rhetoric provides ideological cover for covert operations targeting Western interests.

Domestic Exploitation
Although July’s shootings lacked Iranian ties, the chaotic frequency of U.S. gun violence provides Iran with an environment in which surveillance or proxy actions could go unnoticed, blending with domestic criminal trends and overstretching law enforcement resources.

Cyber-Physical Integration
Recent IRGC cyber operations align with their extraterritorial plots. Iran may use cyber intrusions for reconnaissance, identifying high-value targets or disrupting local systems to mask physical operations.

Parallel Threat Factors
While Iran remains the most active foreign state threat, DHS and FBI assessments also note:

• Anti-government extremist groups (e.g., No Lives Matter, sovereign citizen cells) continue to monitor publicized attacks, potentially seeking inspiration.
• Online radicalization pipelines allow adversarial states and domestic extremists to exploit the same social fractures.
• No confirmed direct links exist between these groups and July shootings; however, the risk of future opportunistic overlap remains.

Escalation Indicators

• Heightened rhetoric from Iranian leadership or IRGC commanders.
• Increased arrests of Iranian-linked operatives in the U.S. or Europe.
• Coordinated cyber disruptions tied to diaspora-targeted harassment campaigns.

Risk Outlook

• Near-Term (1–3 months): Continued surveillance and intimidation operations targeting activists and dissidents.
• Mid-Term (3–12 months): Possible shift toward more aggressive plots, especially if U.S.–Iran tensions escalate.
• Long-Term (>12 months): Iran will likely sustain a persistent low-intensity campaign leveraging cyber, criminal, and covert assets.

Strategic Implications
Iran’s operations create a converging threat landscape where foreign intelligence activity overlaps with domestic instability, requiring:

• Enhanced counterintelligence and criminal network monitoring.
• Closer integration between federal and local law enforcement.
• Public awareness and diaspora community protection initiatives.
• Expanded international intelligence cooperation.

Conclusion

While no direct evidence links Iranian operatives to the U.S. shootings in July 2025, these incidents must be evaluated within the broader context of Iranian extraterritorial threat activity. Iran’s established pattern of leveraging intelligence assets, criminal networks, and information warfare creates an operational environment where domestic crises, such as mass shootings, could be exploited for propaganda, psychological impact, or diversionary purposes.

Iran’s aggressive posture, reinforced by the July 31 joint allied condemnation and Tehran’s defiant proclamations, indicates a willingness to expand its influence campaigns and clandestine operations. This convergence of foreign state-sponsored activity and domestic instability presents a hybrid threat landscape that cannot be addressed by law enforcement or counterintelligence alone.

Additionally, while domestic extremist groups were not tied to July’s shootings, they remain a persistent background risk factor capable of compounding the effects of foreign influence operations. Their potential opportunistic alignment with foreign adversarial narratives warrants ongoing monitoring.

Ultimately, July’s shootings and Iran’s ongoing hostile intelligence activities represent parallel but intersecting security challenges. Effective mitigation will require a proactive posture, integrating community outreach, cyber-intelligence, and coordinated counterintelligence measures, to prevent Iran or any foreign actor from capitalizing on U.S. domestic instability.