S2 INTELLIGENCE REPORT

“NO KINGS” OCTOBER 18 PROTEST OUTLOOK

Subject: Nationwide “No Kings” Demonstrations Scheduled for October 18, 2025
Date: 250920-0602z
Threat Level: (3) Elevated YELLOW

SUMMARY:

A third coordinated national protest under the “No Kings” banner is confirmed for Saturday, October 18, 2025, spanning cities across all 50 states with international solidarity actions in Berlin, Germany, and Toronto, Canada. Following the large-scale June 14 (estimated 5 million participants across ~2,100 locations) and July 17 actions, this event—termed “No Kings 2″—is driven by a coalition of over 20 progressive, civil rights, labor, and environmental groups to sustain pressure ahead of the 2026 elections. Core themes include defending democratic institutions against perceived authoritarian actions (e.g., expanded immigration enforcement, threats of National Guard deployments, executive overreach), promoting voter registration, and rejecting centralized power. Organizers aim to demonstrate “America has no kings, and the power belongs to the people.”

As of September 20, 2025 over 400 events are confirmed via NoKings.org and Mobilize.us, with organizers recruiting local hosts and volunteers to reach 2,000+ events by October. Activities include rallies, marches, voter drives, teach-ins, and symbolic displays (e.g., mock crowns). Nonviolence is central, with extensive trainings on safety, de-escalation, and legal rights; permits are secured in major cities. However, participants face personal safety risks, including potential confrontations with counter-protesters, isolated agitators, or environmental hazards (e.g., extreme weather, overcrowding), especially in politically polarized areas. Additional risks include disinformation (e.g., AI-generated media) and logistical challenges. The coalition targets 6-12 million participants to signal sustained resistance.

KEY CONFIRMED DETAILS:

UNVERIFIED / SPECULATIVE CLAIMS:

• Total Number of Cities or Participants: Prior protests reached 2,000+ locations and 5 million attendees. October estimates suggest 6-12 million across hundreds to thousands of events, depending on weather, media, and counter-messaging. No source confirms 2,000+ yet; monitor NoKings.org/Mobilize.us for updates.
• Funding Totals: No validated figures for October 18 (e.g., tens of millions). Prior events used ActBlue (~$6M unverified). Speculative ties to foundations like Open Society U.S. lack evidence.
• Full Logistics / Supply Chain: Staging trucks, portable restrooms, volunteer transport undocumented nationally. Local details emerging (e.g., Miami, DC, Norfolk) but not at scale.
• Named Donors: Unsubstantiated links to progressive donors (e.g., for Indivisible). No confirmed October allocations; monitor FEC filings post-event.
• Law Enforcement Response: DHS flags date for monitoring; no National Guard, federal military, or NTAS bulletins as of September 20. Organizer concerns about militarized responses unverified. Jurisdictional planning varies.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SECURITY POSTURE:

NYPD, LAPD, and Washington, DC MPD coordinate with organizers, monitor counter-protest threats, and emphasize de-confliction. Fusion Centers in Georgia, Colorado, Oregon track extremist chatter (e.g., right-wing via Telegram, anarchist-leaning groups). Major cities acknowledge October 18, preparing based on past incidents (e.g., Salt Lake City’s June shooting prompting stricter permits, including potential charges for false info). DHS internal briefing (non-public) flags “situational awareness” due to immigration policy ties, prioritizing community policing. No large-scale violence intent; isolated tensions possible, posing risks to participant safety, especially in areas with counter-protester activity or overcrowding. Real-time OSINT recommended for flashpoints.

CONTEXT & HISTORICAL PRECEDENT:

• June 14 (2025): ~5 million people in 2,100+ locations opposed perceived authoritarianism, military parades, and threats to democracy/civil liberties. July 17 followed similarly.
• Aftermath / Local Lessons: Salt Lake City shooting involving “peacekeeper” volunteers led to stricter permitting and safety reviews, highlighting risks to participant safety from untrained actors or miscommunication.
• Messaging Refinement: Organizers emphasize nonviolence, de-escalation, legal observers, and personal safety training, learning from prior events to reduce risks.

ANALYSIS:

The October 18, 2025 protests extend the “No Kings” arc, evolving from post-2020 grassroots activism into a structured movement with robust infrastructure (trainings, toolkits, coordination). Focus remains on civic messaging, voter mobilization, and symbolic resistance to authoritarian trends, critical of Trump administration policies while stressing lawful action. Coalition diversity (labor, rights, environmental) broadens appeal, potentially drawing moderates amid economic strains.

Concerns: Movement tone risks deepening divisions in volatile areas (e.g., Charlotte, red-leaning regions). Organized nature and trainings (10,000+ participants) mitigate chaos risks, but personal safety concerns persist due to potential counter-protester aggression, isolated agitators, or environmental factors (e.g., heat, overcrowding).

X Platform Sentiment: 80-90% positive (e.g., calls to “join” or “organize” in San Francisco, San Diego, Chicago, NYC, Norfolk), with minor negative speculation (e.g., unrest fears, “CW2” rhetoric). Posts claim potential for “largest U.S. protest,” with Norfolk event promoted as “family-friendly, safe” but urged to “stay alert.” International echoes in Berlin and Toronto amplify anti-authoritarian narratives.

Threat Vectors:

1. Counter-protests/Agitators: Risk of confrontations in polarized areas (e.g., right-wing “watch parties” or anarchist disruptions), posing personal safety threats to attendees.
2. Permit Denials/Pushback: Stricter rules (e.g., Salt Lake City) may limit events or increase tensions.
3. Disinformation: AI-generated media or fake violence alerts could escalate risks or misinform attendees.
4. Environmental/Logistical: Extreme weather, overcrowding, or poor planning in rural sites could compromise safety.
   No credible extremist coordination or foreign links; 95% peaceful projection, but participants must prioritize personal safety through awareness and adherence to training.

Movement Maturation: Structured coordination and international support enhance visibility, potentially aiding U.S. soft power. Monitor turnout for 2026 predictive value.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

• Organizers/Jurisdictions: Share permit/safety info transparently (routes, crowd sizes, plans). Provide clear safety guidelines to attendees, including hydration, buddy systems, and exit strategies.
• Law Enforcement: Train in de-escalation, minimal force, observer coordination. Prioritize attendee safety through visible but non-confrontational presence.
• Community: Monitor social media/fringe forums for rumors, threats, misinformation. Encourage attendees to report suspicious activity to organizers or legal observers.
• Emergency Services: Review access/standby in metro areas, prepare for heat-related or crowd-related incidents.
• Media/Public: Balanced reporting, fact-check claims, heed protester/law enforcement statements to reduce conflict inflation. Highlight safety resources for attendees.

CONCLUSION:

The October 18 “No Kings” protest is a major coordinated action with refined infrastructure and broad coalition reach. Confirmed elements include date, partners, nonviolence emphasis, and civil liberties commitment. Unverified claims (size, funding, deployments) persist. Outcomes depend on local management, weather, counter-activity, and media framing. Strategic nonviolence and transparency favor low risk and high public sympathy, but participants must remain vigilant for personal safety due to potential confrontations, environmental hazards, or disinformation.

SOURCES:

• NoKings.org – Toolkit, trainings, event registration.
• Mobilize.us – Event listings.
• Public Citizen – Protest details.
• Common Dreams – Organizer statements, scale.
• Indivisible Charlotte – Local event.
• AP News – Historical context.
• WLRN – Miami details.
• KPBS – San Diego event.
• Utah News Dispatch – Permitting changes.
• Houston Chronicle – Event overview.
• TribLIVE – Pittsburgh event.
• WAVY – Norfolk event.
• Additional: X posts via semantic/keyword searches (Sep 17-20, 2025) for sentiment, event buzz.